PBAT ECONOMIC DIRECTION AND THREE-YEAR PERFORMANCE 2023 -2026: DOES THE MISSING DRIVER IN NIGERIA’S PETROLEUM SECTOR MATTER?
My assessment is that, comparatively speaking, the Tinubu administration has demonstrated greater policy decisiveness and a stronger willingness to confront difficult economic realities than was evident during the 2015–2023 period. The removal of fuel subsidies, exchange-rate reforms, renewed emphasis on investment attraction, and efforts to reposition the oil and gas sector all point to a more assertive and reform-oriented economic posture.
Nonetheless, the administration still appears more transactional than transformational in its governance approach. Much of the policy focus has centered on short-term macroeconomic stabilization, fiscal adjustments, and political-economic management rather than on deep institutional reforms capable of driving long-term productivity growth and sustainable development. Although several of the reforms are economically rational, many Nigerians have yet to experience meaningful improvements in living standards, employment creation, energy reliability, or social welfare outcomes.
Within the petroleum sector, there are encouraging signs of renewed engagement with investment recovery, domestic refining, and gas commercialization compared to previous years. However, one persistent concern is the seeming absence of a clearly identifiable “driver” possessing both the technical competence and strategic authority required to coordinate and steer the sector coherently. At times, the industry appears to operate through multiple centers of influence without a unifying technocratic vision consistently guiding policy implementation, regulatory alignment, and long-term sectoral priorities. Consequently, there is often a sense of policy motion without sufficient strategic direction.
Meanwhile, fundamental structural challenges — including crude theft, energy poverty, weak infrastructure, declining cost competitiveness, regulatory uncertainty, and limited industrial linkages — remain unresolved. Overall, the administration appears more effective in managing immediate economic pressures than in articulating and executing a truly transformational development agenda capable of positioning the petroleum sector as a sustainable catalyst for national economic growth and prosperity.
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